Running Injuries in Seattle: Why “Too Much, Too Soon” Isn’t the Full Story
Many runners, after they’ve experience and injury, have heard the explanation: “you did too much, too soon”
While this guidance is accurate for many overuse injuries, it does not tell the whole story when it comes to training load and running injury risk.
As a physical therapist working with runners in Seattle, I see this often. Runners are doing a lot right, but small changes in how training is structured can make a big difference in staying healthy.
What a Recent Large Prospective Study Shows About Running Injury Risk
A large prospective study of more than 5,000 runners, the Garmin RUNSAFE study, examined whether sudden increases in running distance are truly associated with higher rates of overuse injury.
Historically, running coaches, physical therapists, and trainers have focused on the acute:chronic workload ratio, or ACWR, to monitor training progression.
This compares:
• Acute load: your recent training over the last 1 to 2 weeks
• Chronic load: your longer term training over the last 4 to 6 weeks
The idea is that large increases in recent training compared to your baseline leads to a higher risk of injury.
However, findings from this study suggest that this traditional framework may not be the most effective way to predict injury risk in runners.
The Real Risk: Spikes in Your Long Run
Rather than focusing only on weekly mileage, this research found that runners who increased the distance of a single run by more than 10% compared with their longest run in the last 30 days had a significantly higher risk of injury (Frandsen, 2025).
This shifts how we should think about training.
It is not just about how much you run in a week. It is about how that mileage is distributed.
A sudden spike in your long run may be one of the biggest risk factors for injury.
What This Means for Runners
Instead of focusing only on total mileage, it helps to:
• Avoid large jumps in any single run, especially long runs
• Keep long run increases at or below about 10%
• Stay consistent with your weekly structure rather than having big spikes
The principle of “too much, too soon” still applies, but how that load is applied matters just as much as the total volume.
Intensity Is a Major Injury Driver Too
It is also important to remember that adding intensity is a huge predictor of injury.
This includes:
• Speed work
• Hills
• Interval training
If you have taken a break from running or are building back up, it is best to first build a solid base of volume before adding intensity.
A Simple Way to Add Speed Safely: Strides
A great way to introduce intensity without a big increase in injury risk is with strides.
Strides are not all out sprints. They are smooth, relaxed efforts at about mile race pace.
They should:
• Last about 20 to 30 seconds
• Feel controlled and not exhausting
• Focus on coordination and rhythm
They are a great way to help your brain and muscles adapt to faster speeds without excessive stress.
How to add them:
• Start with 3 to 4 strides at the end of a run
• Add them to 2 runs per week
• Every couple of weeks, add them to one more run
• Only progress if you are feeling good and not dealing with any pain
The Bottom Line for Staying Injury Free While Running
While “too much, too soon” is still a useful concept, it is only part of the picture.
To reduce your risk of running injuries:
• Avoid sudden increases in your long run
• Be cautious when adding intensity
• Be Consistent!
Small, steady progress is still the best way to stay healthy and keep running long term.
Need Help With a Running Injury in Seattle?
If you are dealing with a running injury or keep having setbacks when trying to build mileage, it can be helpful to have a clear plan.
I work with runners in Seattle to:
• Identify the root issue of your pain
• Adjust training without fully stopping running when possible
• Build a progression that feels sustainable
If you are not sure what to change, you can schedule an evaluation and leave with a clear plan for your training.
References
Frandsen, S. B. (2025). Association between changes in running distance and injury risk in recreational runners: Findings from the Garmin RUNSAFE study.